Pa Marichi 10th2022, pafupifupi malo mtengo wa zoweta batire kalasi lifiyamu carbonate bwinobwino anathyola 500,000 yuan/tani, kuswa 500,000 yuan/tani chizindikiro kwa nthawi yoyamba.Zitsulo lifiyamu ndi m'mbuyomu awiri otsatizana malonda masiku analumpha 100,000 yuan/tani, tsopano pafupifupi malo mtengo unathyola 3.1 miliyoni chizindikiro.Ndipo mtengo wa batire kalasi lifiyamu hydroxide wakhala akutsalira lifiyamu carbonate pamaso posachedwapa kusiyana mtengo pakati pa lithiamu carbonate ndi lithiamu hydroxide nawonso kucheperachepera kwambiri, malinga ndi mmene lithiamu hydroxide akadali kusowa tsopano, tsogolo zinthu zingapitirize.
Ndipo kukwera kwaposachedwa kwamitengo ya faifi tambala kamodzi kunayambitsa makampani ku mabatire ndi magalimoto amagetsi ndi ndalama zina zokambilana.Ndiye kumtunda mitengo yamtengo wapatali imathandizira kukwera kwamakono, unyolo wamakampani a lithiamu pakati ndi mabizinesi otsika amakhudzidwa ndi chiyani?Kutengera kafukufuku ndi mitundu yonse yankhani pamsika, kuphatikiza komaliza kuli motere:
Malinga SMM malo mitengo, kuyambira kotala chachinayi cha 2020, zoweta batire kalasi lifiyamu carbonate malo mitengo anayamba kupitiriza kukwera, ndipo izi n'zosasiyana ndi kusowa kwa kumtunda lithiamu nonferrous zitsulo zopangira.China iyenera kuitanitsa 65 peresenti ya zida zake za lithiamu mu 2021, malinga ndi China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association.Chifukwa chake, ndi kukula kwamphamvu kwa magalimoto amagetsi atsopano padziko lonse lapansi komanso kusungirako mphamvu, monga wopanga wamkulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi wa mchere wa lithiamu ndi batire ya lithiamu, kutsutsana pakati pa kupezeka ndi kufunikira kwa zinthu za lithiamu ku China kwakula pang'onopang'ono.
Pachifukwa ichi, makampani akumtunda akhala akudutsa mumayendedwe a migodi ya lithiamu kuti akhazikitse kagayidwe kazinthu zopangira.Tengani nkhani m'masiku posachedwapa monga chitsanzo, Zangge Migodi anaulula zaka zisanu chitukuko njira ndondomeko, siteji yoyamba (2022-2024) ku dziko lonse, qarhan Salt Lake lifiyamu carbonate kupanga kukhala wokhazikika;Ntchito ya Mamicuo Salt Lake Lithium Project idayamba kugwira ntchito.Kupita patsogolo kwapangidwa pakupeza ntchito zatsopano, ndipo 1 kapena 2 ntchito yatsopano yamchere ya Lake lifiyamu yokhala ndi matani 1 miliyoni a nkhokwe za lithiamu carbonate aonjezedwa.Gawo lachiwiri (2025-2027) kuti lipite padziko lonse lapansi, pitirizani kukulitsa bwino chuma cha mchere chomwe chilipo, zizindikiro zazikulu zachuma ndi zopindulitsa za masitepe mabiliyoni khumi, makamaka kufika pamlingo wa gulu la migodi yapadziko lonse lapansi;Kupanga kwa Qarhan Salt Lake lifiyamu carbonate kunakhalabe kokhazikika;Pulojekiti ya Lithium ya Mamicuo Salt Lake ndiyokhazikika pakupanga ndikukulitsidwa mwa kusankha mwayi;Mgodi watsopano wa mchere wa lithiamu.
Ganfeng Lithium adanenanso kale kuti mphamvu ya polojekiti ya Mt Marion spodumene idzakwezedwa ndikukulitsidwa.Ntchito yokulitsa ikuyembekezeka kupangidwa mu theka lachiwiri la 2022, ndipo mphamvu yoyambira ikuyembekezeka kukwera ndi 10-15%.Kuphatikiza apo, kuchuluka kwa mchere wolumikizana kudzawonjezedwa, komwe kukuyembekezeka kuwonjezeka ndi 10-15% yowonjezera.Enieni lonse kukula zimadalira ndondomeko kukhathamiritsa zotsatira ndi mkhalidwe weniweni wa kukhudzana ore.
Kuphatikiza apo, malinga ndi omwe ali mkati mwa kampaniyo, polojekiti ya Cauchari-Olaroz Salt Lake ya ku Argentina ikukonzekera kuyika matani a 40,000 a lithiamu carbonate ya batri mu theka lachiwiri la 2022. Panthawiyi, gawo lachinayi la Mahon Plant liri patsogolo pa nthawi. kapena ayamba kupanga mu Julayi.Zopangidwazo zidzakwaniritsa mphamvu zomwe zilipo kale za lithiamu hydroxide.Kuphatikiza apo, projekiti ya Ganfeng Lithium ya Marina ku Argentina ndi projekiti ya Sonora ku Mexico nayonso ikumangidwa ndipo iyamba kupangidwa mu 2023.
Jiang Weiping, wapampando wa Tianqi Lithium ndi Ganfeng Lithium, yomwe imatchedwa "double male lithiamu", adaperekanso malingaliro kuti apititse patsogolo chitukuko chobiriwira cha sichuan lithiamu chuma pamagulu awiriwa chaka chino.Jiang Weiping amakhulupirira kuti, pakali pano, mayiko akuluakulu a dziko azindikira kufunika kwa njira za lithiamu chuma, Chile, Bolivia, Mexico ndi mayiko ena kutchulidwa lithiamu chuma monga chuma dziko njira monga mafuta, chitukuko ndi magwiritsidwe ntchito lifiyamu chuma zikuchulukirachulukira. kulamulira.Chifukwa chake, kufulumizitsa chitukuko chobiriwira komanso choyenera cha chuma cha Lithium ku China ndikofunikira kwambiri kuwonetsetsa kuti chitukuko cha makampani a lithiamu chikuyenda bwino.
Osati zokhazo, Jiang Weiping komanso pa sichuan chuma panopa lifiyamu, iye anati, malinga ndi Unduna wa Natural Resources ziwerengero, Sichuan zolimba thanthwe lifiyamu ore mlandu 57% ya chuma dziko lifiyamu ore, kusanja woyamba mu dziko.Monga gawo lalikulu kwambiri la microcrystalline spodumene ku China, gawo la Jika ku Ganzi Prefecture, chigawo cha Sichuan chili ndi malo akuluakulu komanso apamwamba kwambiri a lithiamu, omwe ali ndi nkhokwe zotsimikiziridwa za lithiamu zomwe zimafika matani 1.887,700.Malo otsimikiziridwa a lithiamu zothandizira ku Lijiagou spodumene mgodi ku Jinchuan County, Aba Prefecture, m'chigawo cha Sichuan ndi pafupifupi matani 512,100, ndipo chuma cha lithiamu m'dera la Szemuzu ndi pafupifupi matani 520,000.
Ndi kukwera kwachangu kwamitengo yamtengo wapatali, mabizinesi ambiri a lithiamu alowa m'magulu amigodi kuti akhazikitse mtengowo.Chaka chino chokha, angapo makampani, kuphatikizapo BYD, Zijin Migodi, China Mineral Resources ndi zina zotero, scrambled kutsegula masanjidwe awo mu chuma lifiyamu.
Posachedwapa, malinga ndi mtengo wamtengo wapatali wa SMM umasonyeza kuti mtengo waposachedwa wa lithiamu zitsulo ukupitiriza kukwera, kuyambira pa March 15, mtengo wamtengo wapatali wa zitsulo za lithiamu wakwera kufika pa 3.134 miliyoni yuan/tani, 1,739 miliyoni yuan/tani kuposa pachiyambi. pa chaka, mpaka 124.66%.
Kukwera kwamitengo ya zinthu monga chitsulo cha lithiamu kumayendetsanso mtengo wazinthu monga batri-grade lithiamu carbonate ndi batri-grade lithium hydroxide, zida zazikulu zamabatire amphamvu.Panali ngakhale mphekesera kuti kumbuyo kwa lifiyamu carbonate mtengo kukwera oposa 500.000 yuan/tani, pakati mtsinje batire fakitale mtengo kuthamanga ndi yaikulu, mafakitale ambiri zoweta batire sagula katundu, savomereza malamulo kulimbana ndi lifiyamu carbonate mtengo skyrocketing.Pachifukwa ichi, Ningde Times, Eva Lithium Energy, Guoxuan High-tech ndi makampani ena a batri anena kuti palibe zinthu zotere, ndondomeko yopangira panopa ndi yachibadwa, ikhoza kutsimikizira kutsika kwamtsinje.Ndipo lifiyamu kutsogolera ogwira ntchito Ganfeng lifiyamu ananenanso kuti palibe batire fakitale musagule zinthu, mzere kupanga ndi kupanga zonse boma malonda.
Kuphatikiza pa lithiamu carbonate, batire yamphamvu mitengo ina yayikulu nayonso ndiyokwera kwambiri.Mitengo yaposachedwa ya lithiamu hydroxide yakwera kwambiri, kuthamangitsa lithiamu carbonate, kusiyana kwamitengo iwiriyi kunachepetsedwa.Malinga ndi kafukufuku wa SMM akuwonetsa kuti, kupindula ndi kuwonjezereka kwa ma nickel apamwamba a mabatire otsiriza, kufunika kogula kwa lithiamu hydroxide kwawonjezeka, chiwerengero chonse cha katundu ndi zofunikira sichikusungidwa, chomwe ndi chifukwa cha kukwera mofulumira kwa lithiamu hydroxide. mitengo.Komabe, poganizira siteji yamakono ya lithiamu hydroxide ndi lifiyamu carbonate kusiyana mtengo pang'onopang'ono wachepa ndi osiyanasiyana wololera, ndipo posachedwapa opanga anamaliza kukonzekera, kutsatira kapena ziro pang'ono kudzaza nyumba yosungiramo katundu, msika akuyembekezeka lithiamu hydroxide. kapena kuchepetsa.
Ndipo nthawi ina yapitayo, mkangano pakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine unayambitsa kukwera kwakukulu kwa mtengo wa nickel, zomwe zinachititsa kuti mtengo wa nickel sulfate ukwere mofulumira, kamodzi kamene kakuyendetsa mtengo wazinthu zitatu zowonjezera kukwera ndi 12% -16%.Panthawi imeneyo, malinga ndi SMM mawerengedwe, mu mlungu wa March 8, faifi tambala sulphate mtengo kuwonjezeka zinachititsa kuti ternary zinthu mtengo kuwonjezeka 16,000-25,000 yuan/tani, lolingana ternary lifiyamu batire mtengo kuwonjezeka 31-47 yuan / KWh, kutenga 70KWh. mwachitsanzo galimoto yamagetsi, yofanana ndi kuwonjezereka kwa batire yagalimoto yamagetsi ya 2000-3300 yuan pafupifupi masiku awiri!
Ndipo pakukwera kwakukulu kwamitengo ya faifi tambala, zinthu zitatu za nickel zidakwera kwambiri.Malinga ndi kuwerengera kwamitengo ya faifi ya LME, chomera chamchere kupita kumitengo yapakatikati yopanga, faifi tambala sulphate ikuyembekezeka kukwera mpaka 80,000 yuan/tani, mtengo wa batire la njinga udzakwera 7000 yuan!
Ndikoyenera kunena kuti mtengo wa nickel, cobalt, lithiamu ndi zitsulo zina ukupitirirabe kukwera pakali pano, kubwezeretsanso mabatire a zinyalala kukukulanso kukhala nyanja yatsopano ya buluu ya sikelo yochuluka.Malinga ndi malipoti okhudzana ndi atolankhani, kuchotsedwa kwathunthu kwa batire ku China mu 2020 kwafika pafupifupi matani 200,000.Chiwerengerochi chikuyembekezeka kukwera pafupifupi matani miliyoni imodzi pofika 2025.
Tianfeng Securities m'mbuyomu adanenanso kuti batire yatsopano yamagetsi pamsika yayamba kulowa nthawi yopuma pantchito.Akuti kuchuluka kwathunthu kwa batire yamphamvu kudzafika matani miliyoni 1.16 pofika chaka cha 2024. Donghai Securities adaneneratunso kuti msika wobwezeretsanso batire udzafika 107.43 biliyoni wopambana pofika 2030.
Ponena za kuchuluka kwa mtengo wa lithiamu komanso kusatsimikizika kwa mtengo wa lifiyamu, malinga ndi kafukufukuyu, pakali pano, malingaliro ogula a mabizinesi obwezeretsanso ndikugula pang'ono, kusunga kufunika kwa kupanga, ndikusunga zopangira kwa theka la theka. mwezi mpaka mwezi.
Pankhani ya mchere wa cobalt, malinga ndi kafukufukuyu, cobalt sulphate yakhala ikugwedezeka posachedwa.Pankhani ya mchere wa cobalt pakali pano, vuto lalikulu lomwe mabizinesi obwezeretsanso amakumana nawo ndizovuta kufalitsa mtengo.Pankhani ya cobalt mchere mankhwala kuwonjezeka mtengo wa mabizinesi yobwezeretsanso, kufunika kwa mabizinesi kunsi kwa ternary kalambulabwalo kwa cobalt sulphate si wamphamvu monga lithiamu carbonate, opanga kumunsi amavomereza mtengo wa cobalt sulphate pambuyo kuwonjezeka ndi otsika, ndi kumtunda. mabizinesi obwezeretsanso sakhala ndi chiyembekezo pakufalikira kwamitengo pambuyo pakukwera kwamtengo wa mchere wa cobalt.
Ndipo nthawi ina yapitayo, kusinthasintha kwamphamvu kwamitengo ya faifi tambala kudapangitsanso mabizinesi obwezeretsanso kuyimitsa kugula kwa scrap rhythm, zomwe zidakhudza kwambiri mtengo wokonzanso mabizinesi.Pofuna kuthana ndi kukwera kwamitengo kosagwirizana ndi chilengedwe, mabizinesi obwezeretsanso pa nthawiyo adasankha kudikirira kwakanthawi ndikuwona ndikukonzekera kukonza dongosolo logulira mtengo wa faifi tatsika pamtengo wokhazikika.
Nthawi yotumiza: Apr-18-2022